2 years ago

#26148

test-img

mihnea_11235

How to compute the combined probability of loss for 2 time series (consisting of historical stock prices)?

May I please ask the community's support with the following problem?

I have 2 time series, with approximately 1000 observations each (same number of observations for both). They represent the daily closing prices for 2 stocks: asset A and asset B. Assuming we are currently at time t, I'm interested in computing (forecasting) the probability that, (at anytime) over the next 5 days (i.e. t+1, t+2, t+3, t+4, t+5), either stock A's or B's price will fall by at least rloss%:

Pr( PAt+i < PAt (1-rloss) or PBt+i < PBt (1-rloss) ) = ?

where:

i = {1,2,3,4,5}, periods for which I want to forecast ahead (not yet observed)

t = current time

PA, PB = price of stock A, price of stock B

rloss = loss threshold, e.g. rloss = 0.03 => PAt+i < PAt (1-0.03)

python

time-series

probability

quantitative-finance

risk-analysis

0 Answers

Your Answer

Accepted video resources